Bryson Stott Under 0.5 HR vs Mets | 96% Hit Rate

Bryson Stott's home run prop against the New York Mets displays a historic trend rooted in draft history. The Mets passed on Stott at pick 12 in the 2019 MLB draft, selecting Brett Baty instead. Across 51 career games against New York, Stott has recorded fewer than 0.5 home runs in 49 contests, a 96% hit rate. This season, he has hit under 0.5 home runs in 30 of 33 games against teams that passed on drafting him, including the Mets.

Quick Stats

• B. Stott Under 0.5 HR cashed in 49 of 51 lifetime games vs NYM (96% hit rate)
• In the last 10 games vs teams who passed on drafting Stott, the Under hit 100% of the time (10 of 10)
• This season, Stott has gone Under 0.5 HR in 30 of 33 games against teams that didn't draft him (91% hit rate)
• Last season, the trend held at 89% across 66 games vs the same opponent pool

Career Trends vs New York

Bryson Stott's home run output versus the Mets represents one of baseball's most durable statistical patterns. Over 51 career games, the Under has connected at a 96% rate, cashing in 49 matchups. The Mets' decision to bypass Stott in 2019 (selecting 12th overall) has correlated with remarkably consistent offensive restraint from the Philadelphia shortstop in their subsequent meetings.

• 49 of 51 career games: Under 0.5 HR (96%)
• Only 2 games with 1+ home run across entire history
• Trend spans from 2022 season through current date

Recent Performance vs Draft-Passing Teams

When facing any team that passed on drafting him in 2019, Stott's Under prop has been even more dominant. Over his last 20 games against such opponents, the Under has cashed 100% of the time. In his last 10 games in this category (which includes three Mets games), the prop went 10-for-10. This season alone, across 33 games versus teams that didn't draft him, Stott has delivered Under 0.5 HR outcomes in 30 contests.

• Last 20 games vs non-drafting teams: 20-for-20 Under (100%)
• Last 10 games vs non-drafting teams: 10-for-10 Under (100%)
• 2026 season to date vs non-drafting teams: 30-for-33 Under (91%)

Season-Long and Prior-Year Context

The 2026 season has reinforced the established pattern. Stott has logged 33 games against teams that passed on drafting him, including seven Mets matchups. The Under has cashed in 30 of these 33 games. Prior to this season, in 2025, Stott maintained an 89% Under hit rate across 66 games against the same opponent pool, suggesting the trend has weathered multiple seasons and roster compositions.

• 2025 season: 59 of 66 games Under 0.5 HR (89%)
• 2026 season: 30 of 33 games Under 0.5 HR (91%)
• Mets alone comprise significant portion of recent samples

Game Context: Philadelphia @ New York, June 27

The Phillies arrive in Queens with a 46-36 record and a 4-game winning streak, while the Mets enter at 34-48 with a 7-game losing streak. Stott has gone Under 0.5 HR in all five of his last five games against teams that passed on drafting him. Weather projections call for rainy conditions with temperatures around 23-25C, which can suppress offensive output.

• PHI record: 46-36 (4-game win streak)
• NYM record: 34-48 (7-game losing streak)
• Stott's last 5 games vs non-drafting teams: 5-for-5 Under

Prop Outlook

Bryson Stott carries 13 qualifying prop angles in our data. The top trend hits 100% historically; we weigh recent form against the line.

• B. Stott Over 0.5 - RBIs (100% in 1 humid away games this season) at +193 - PHI @ MIA
• B. Stott Over 2.5 - Total Bases (100% in 1 humid away games this season) at +360 - PHI @ MIA
• B. Stott Under 1.5 - Hits + Runs + RBIs (80% in the last 10 rainy away games) at -118 - PHI @ MIA
• B. Stott Under 0.5 - Runs Scored (76% in 29 afternoon games this season) at -225 - PHI @ NYM
• B. Stott Over 0.5 - Hits (67% in 33 games this season vs teams who passed on drafting Stott) at -165 - PHI @ NYM

Situational Angles to Know

Storylines our projection data flags for this player:

• Bryson Stott goes head to head with Brett Baty, drafted in the same class.
• Bryson Stott faces a team that passed on him in the draft.
• Bryson Stott plays in his birth country, United States.

Best Prop Picks

Top Bryson Stott prop recommendations with the numbers behind them:

• B. Stott Over 0.5 - RBIs (100% in 1 humid away games this season, +193)
• B. Stott Over 2.5 - Total Bases (100% in 1 humid away games this season, +360)
• B. Stott Under 1.5 - Hits + Runs + RBIs (80% in the last 10 rainy away games, -118)
• B. Stott Under 0.5 - Runs Scored (76% in 29 afternoon games this season, -225)

The Trends Behind the Props

How Bryson Stott's prop results break down across recent form, the full season, home/away, and head-to-head splits:

• B. Stott Over 0.5 - RBIs, 60% in the last 20 away games played in a party city (12/20)
• B. Stott Under 1.5 - Hits + Runs + RBIs, 75% in the last 20 away games vs a former teammate (15/20)
• B. Stott Over 0.5 - RBIs, 60% in the last 20 games played in a party city (12/20)
• B. Stott Over 2.5 - Total Bases, 40% in the last 20 away games played in a party city (8/20)
• B. Stott Under 1.5 - Hits + Runs + RBIs, 75% in the last 20 games vs teams playing on 0 days of rest (15/20)
• B. Stott Over 2.5 - Total Bases, 40% in the last 20 games played in a party city (8/20)
• B. Stott Under 1.5 - Hits + Runs + RBIs, 75% in the last 20 games vs a former teammate (15/20)
• B. Stott Under 1.5 - Hits + Runs + RBIs, 70% in the last 20 away games (14/20)
• B. Stott Over 0.5 - RBIs, 54% in the last 13 away games against MIA and a former teammate (7/13)
• B. Stott Under 1.5 - Hits + Runs + RBIs, 80% in the last 10 rainy away games (8/10)

Things to Watch Out For

Risk flags before betting these props:

• Bryson Stott is on short rest (0 day), a fatigue risk for volume props.
• B. Stott Over 0.5 - Doubles has hit just 40% recently, closer to a coin flip than an edge.
• B. Stott Over 0.5 - Walks sits at 40% lately, too thin to back with confidence.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Bryson Stott's home run rate versus the Mets historically?

Bryson Stott has hit fewer than 0.5 home runs in 49 of his 51 career games against the Mets, an astounding 96% hit rate. He has recorded only two games with 1 or more home runs across the entire series history.

Why is the Mets matchup significant for Stott's home run prop?

The Mets passed on drafting Stott in 2019, selecting 12th overall and choosing Brett Baty instead. This draft history correlates with Stott's remarkably consistent Under performance against New York and other teams that did not draft him.

How has the Under performed in Stott's recent games?

Over Stott's last 10 games against teams that passed on drafting him, the Under 0.5 HR prop has cashed 100% of the time (10 of 10). In his last 20 such games, the trend holds at 100% (20 of 20).

Has this trend held up throughout multiple seasons?

Yes. In 2025, Stott went Under 0.5 HR in 59 of 66 games versus non-drafting teams (89%). This season through June 26, he has gone Under in 30 of 33 such games (91%), demonstrating consistency across years.

What does the Under 0.5 home runs prop mean?

Betting the Under means wagering that Bryson Stott will hit fewer than 0.5 home runs (i.e., zero home runs) in the game. This is a yes/no prop with a fixed outcome depending on whether he hits a home run.