Bryce Harper Under 1.5 H+R+RBI vs Mets | PHI @ NYM Prop Trends

Bryce Harper faces the New York Mets on June 27, 2026, as the Philadelphia Phillies visit Citi Field. The Under 1.5 on Harper's combined hits, runs, and RBIs carries -110 odds (1.91 decimal). Across multiple timeframes, this prop shows consistent cash rates: 48% for the full 2026 season, 42% in 77 career games vs New York, and 40% over his last 20 games. With the Mets in a 7-game losing streak and the Phillies riding a 4-game win streak, context favors Philadelphia's offense, yet Harper's recent splits tell a different story.

Quick Stats

• Under 1.5 H+R+RBI has cashed 48% of the time in 81 games this season (39 of 81).
• Vs New York Mets: 42% hit rate over 77 career matchups (32 of 77).
• Last 20 games: 40% (8 of 20); last 10 games: 30% (3 of 10); last 5 games: 20% (1 of 5).
• Harper is on a 4-game winning streak; Mets are 0-5 in their last 5, but that context does not change individual prop outcomes.
• Last season (2025): Under cashed 51% in 135 games (69 of 135).

Season-Long Trends: 48% Hit Rate in 2026

Through 81 games in the 2026 season, Bryce Harper's Under 1.5 on hits plus runs plus RBIs has connected 39 times, a 48% hit rate. This baseline shows the prop has been slightly underwater as a cash vehicle, ticking just below the break-even threshold. The full-season sample is substantial enough to reflect Harper's true production floor against this line.

• 39 unders in 81 games = 48% hit rate this season.
• The opposing team context (Texas, Colorado, San Francisco, Arizona, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta, Miami, New York Mets, Washington) does not produce outlier results within this aggregate.

Head-to-Head vs New York: 42% Hit Rate Across 77 Meetings

Over the course of 77 games against the Mets (both home and away since 2020), Harper's Under 1.5 H+R+RBI has cashed 32 times, a 42% historical rate. This is slightly lower than his season average, suggesting the matchup itself may present a modest headwind. The Mets' pitching or defensive profile has not favored Harper's ability to accumulate combined offense across these two decades of meetings.

• 32 unders in 77 games vs NYM = 42% hit rate (career vs Mets).
• Dates span from August 2020 through June 26, 2026, covering both Citi Field and Citizens Bank Park visits.

Recent Deterioration: 20% in Last 5 Games

Harper's most recent 5-game stretch shows sharp underperformance of the Under. The prop cashed only once (June 24 vs Washington, where Harper posted 0 hits/runs/RBIs) out of 5 games, a 20% rate. Across those five contests, a three-game series at Washington and two games vs New York, Harper accumulated 4, 2, 0, 7, and 4 hits plus runs plus RBIs respectively, hitting above the 1.5 line in four of five outings. This recent uptick in offensive output represents a sharp divergence from the season and career norms.

• Last 5 games: 20% (1 of 5); opponents were @ WSH (3 games) and vs NYM (2 games).
• Individual game totals: 2, 2, 0, 7, 4 hits + runs + RBIs.
• Only one game fell below the 1.5 line (June 24, 0 total).

10-Game and 20-Game Windows Show Modest Declines

Expanding the lens slightly, Harper's last 10 games yield a 30% hit rate (3 of 10), and the last 20 games show 40% (8 of 20). Both windows sit below the full-season 48% average, indicating a recent trend away from the Under. The 20-game window includes a mid-June stretch against Chicago White Sox, Toronto, Milwaukee, and Miami, along with the recent Mets and Washington series. This suggests Harper has been scoring and driving in runs more consistently over the past month than his year-long average would predict.

• Last 10 games: 30% (3 of 10).
• Last 20 games: 40% (8 of 20).
• Both windows sit 8, 18 percentage points below the season rate of 48%.

Prior Season (2025) Baseline: 51% Hit Rate Across 135 Games

In the 2025 season, the Under 1.5 H+R+RBI cashed 51% of the time in 135 games (69 of 135). This is above the current season's 48% rate and slightly above the career-vs-Mets 42% benchmark. The prior-year sample suggests Harper typically stays under the 1.5 combined mark slightly more often than not, though the margin is thin. Current season trending down relative to last year implies Harper may be in a slight offensive uptick in mid-2026.

• 2025 full season: 69 unders in 135 games = 51% hit rate.
• 1.5 percentage points higher than the 2026 season rate, indicating modest recent improvement for the Over.

Team Betting Trends

The strongest Philadelphia Phillies team-level angles, with the numbers:

• Philadelphia Under 1.5 - First 3 Innings Team Runs Scored (80% in the last 45 away games against NYM) at -185
• Philadelphia +0.5 - First 5 Innings Run Line (59% in the last 32 afternoon games against NYM) at -125
• Philadelphia - First 7 Innings Moneyline (50% in the last 20 games) at +105
• Philadelphia - First 5 Innings Moneyline at +114
• Philadelphia -1.5 - 9th Inning Run Line at +710

Situational Angles & Storylines

What our projection data flags for this team right now:

• Philadelphia Phillies ride a 3 game win streak into this matchup.
• Philadelphia Phillies get a softer spot against a sub.500 opponent.

Best Team Picks

Top Philadelphia Phillies team bets with the data behind each:

• Philadelphia Under 1.5 - First 3 Innings Team Runs Scored (80% in the last 45 away games against NYM, -185)
• Philadelphia +0.5 - First 5 Innings Run Line (59% in the last 32 afternoon games against NYM, -125)
• Philadelphia - First 7 Innings Moneyline (50% in the last 20 games, +105)
• Philadelphia - First 5 Innings Moneyline (+114, 47% implied)

Players to Watch on Philadelphia Phillies

Player props from this roster, each tied to the player (not the team):

• J. Realmuto Over 0.5 - RBIs (80% in the last 5 away games, +201)
• J. Realmuto Under 1.5 - Hits + Runs + RBIs (72% in the last 39 away games against NYM, -163)
• A. Bohm Under 0.5 - Hits (70% in the last 10 away games, +147)
• K. Schwarber Under 0.5 - Total Bases (61% in the last 31 away games against NYM, +130)
• K. Schwarber Under 0.5 - Hits (61% in the last 31 away games against NYM, +130)
• B. Marsh Under 0.5 - Hits (60% in the last 20 games against NYM and a former teammate, +170)

Things to Watch Out For

Risk flags before backing this team:

• Philadelphia - First 7 Innings Moneyline has hit just 50% recently, closer to a coin flip than an edge.

Upcoming Schedule

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Bryce Harper Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs prop in the Phillies @ Mets game on June 27?

This prop asks whether Bryce Harper will finish the game with fewer than 1.5 combined hits, runs scored, and runs batted in. The Under is priced at -110 (1.91 decimal odds), implying a 52.4% break-even probability. A hit requires Harper to record 0 or 1 total across those three categories.

How often has the Under cashed this season?

The Under has cashed 48% of the time in 81 games during the 2026 season (39 of 81 games). This is below the 50% break-even threshold, though the sample is substantial.

What is Harper's historical record against the Mets on this prop?

Across 77 career games vs New York (dating back to August 2020), the Under has cashed 42% of the time (32 of 77). This is 6 percentage points lower than his 2026 season rate, suggesting a modest historical headwind in this specific matchup.

Has Harper's performance on this prop improved or declined recently?

Recent trends show deterioration for the Under. In his last 5 games, the Under cashed only 20% (1 of 5); over the last 10 games, 30% (3 of 10); and over the last 20 games, 40% (8 of 20). All three windows sit below the season average of 48%, indicating Harper has been accumulating more hits, runs, and RBIs in June than his year-long baseline.

How does this compare to last season's data?

In 2025, the Under hit at a 51% rate across 135 games (69 of 135), slightly above the current season's 48%. The 1.5-point difference is modest, but it suggests Harper may be in a minor offensive uptick in 2026 relative to his prior-year baseline.