Casey Schmitt Over 0.5 SB vs ATL: 40% L5

Casey Schmitt faces Atlanta Braves on June 28 at Oracle Park in a matchup featuring a former teammate angle. The over 0.5 stolen bases prop has cashed at 40% over Schmitt's last 5 games against a former teammate (Dominic Smith now plays for Atlanta), though longer-term trends show more resistance. This is a deep-dive into the data behind the stolen base line.

Quick Stats

• Schmitt's over 0.5 SB has hit 40% in the last 5 games vs a former teammate (2 of 5)
• Over the last 10 games vs a former teammate, the over has cashed at 20% (2 of 10)
• In 18 games this season vs a former teammate, the over has hit 17% (3 of 18)
• Last season (34 games), Schmitt recorded over 0.5 SB zero times vs a former teammate (0%)
• Giants enter at 33-47 (0.4125 win percentage); Braves are 48-31 (0.6076 win percentage)

Recent Form: Last 5 Games vs Former Teammate

Schmitt's most recent stretch shows the strongest performance on the stolen bases line. In the last 5 games vs a former teammate, the over 0.5 has cashed 2 times, posting a 40% hit rate. These five contests span from June 8 through June 27, 2026, and include both home and away matchups against Chicago and Atlanta.

• Last 5 games: 40% hit rate (2 of 5 cashes)
• Games included: @ CHC, vs CHC, @ ATL (x2), vs ATL
• Most recent game (June 27 vs ATL): Did not cash

Extended Trends: L10 and Season-Long Data

Extending the lens reveals a steeper decline in performance. Over Schmitt's last 10 games against a former teammate, the over has hit at a 20% rate (2 of 10). When expanding to the full 2026 season, the rate dips to 17% across 18 games. Historical context from last season is even more telling: in 34 games in 2025 against a former teammate, Schmitt recorded over 0.5 stolen bases zero times (0%).

• Last 10 games vs former teammate: 20% hit rate (2 of 10)
• 2026 season (18 games vs former teammate): 17% hit rate (3 of 18)
• 2025 season (34 games vs former teammate): 0% hit rate (0 of 34)
• Head-to-head vs ATL (6 games all-time): 17% hit rate (1 of 6)

Game Context: Giants Host Braves at Oracle Park

The Giants welcome Atlanta to Oracle Park on June 28 at 6:05 PM Pacific time for a night game. San Francisco holds a 33-47 record (0.4125 win percentage) and enters with a 1-game losing streak, while the Braves arrive at 48-31 (0.6076 win percentage) and are on a 4-game losing streak with a 1-4 record in their last 5 games. Weather projections show clear conditions with windy conditions (WNW direction, up to 30.6 km/h gusts).

• Venue: Oracle Park (San Francisco) | Capacity: 41,915
• Start time: 6:05 PM PT (Sunday, June 28, 2026)
• Giants record: 33-47 | Last 5: 2-3 | Losing streak: 1 game
• Braves record: 48-31 | Last 5: 1-4 | Losing streak: 4 games
• Weather: Clear, windy (WNW up to 30.6 km/h), temp 14-17C

The Former Teammate Angle

Schmitt, a 26-year-old third baseman drafted 49th overall by San Francisco in 2020, is facing his former San Francisco Giants teammate Dominic Smith, who now plays for Atlanta. While this storyline exists and is tracked in the data, the historical performance against Smith specifically has not supported the over prop consistently. Schmitt's recent L5 mark of 40% represents the strongest stretch in the data set.

• Schmitt drafted by Giants (2020, Round 2, Pick 49)
• Opponent: Dominic Smith (ATL), former Giants teammate
• Both played for San Francisco Giants earlier in their careers

Team Betting Trends

The strongest San Francisco Giants team-level angles, with the numbers:

• San Francisco Under 3.5 - Team Runs Scored (75% in the last 20 night games) at +114
• San Francisco Over 0.5 - 1st Inning Team Runs Scored (45% in the last 20 clear home games) at +215
• San Francisco -0.5 - 1st Inning Run Line (45% in the last 20 clear home games) at +270
• San Francisco -1.5 - First 5 Innings Run Line (37% in the last 35 games against ATL) at +174
• San Francisco - First 5 Innings Moneyline at -150

Situational Angles & Storylines

What our projection data flags for this team right now:

• San Francisco Giants draw a winning opponent (above.500).

Best Team Picks

Top San Francisco Giants team bets with the data behind each:

• San Francisco Under 3.5 - Team Runs Scored (75% in the last 20 night games, +114)
• San Francisco Over 0.5 - 1st Inning Team Runs Scored (45% in the last 20 clear home games, +215)
• San Francisco -0.5 - 1st Inning Run Line (45% in the last 20 clear home games, +270)
• San Francisco -1.5 - First 5 Innings Run Line (37% in the last 35 games against ATL, +174)

Players to Watch on San Francisco Giants

Player props from this roster, each tied to the player (not the team):

• M. Chapman Over 1.5 - Strikeouts (80% in the last 5 night games, +307)
• W. Adames Over 1.5 - Hits + Runs + RBIs (70% in the last 20 night games against ATL, +110)
• L. Arraez Over 0.5 - Runs Scored (70% in the last 20 windy home games, +120)
• C. Schmitt Under 1.5 - Hits + Runs + RBIs (70% in the last 20 clear games, +100)
• M. Chapman Over 1.5 - Total Bases (64% in 14 games this season vs players chosen earlier in the draft, +170)
• E. Haase Over 0.5 - Singles (60% in the last 20 windy home games, +131)

Things to Watch Out For

Risk flags before backing this team:

• San Francisco Giants face a winning opponent (above.500), a tougher spot than the record implies.
• The forecast above could suppress scoring, passing volume, and overs.
• San Francisco Over 0.5 - 1st Inning Team Runs Scored has hit just 45% recently, closer to a coin flip than an edge.
• San Francisco -0.5 - 1st Inning Run Line sits at 45% lately, too thin to back with confidence.
• San Francisco -1.5 - First 5 Innings Run Line has cashed only 37% of late, below the bar for a real edge.

Upcoming Schedule

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is Casey Schmitt's stolen bases over 0.5 hit rate in the last 5 games vs a former teammate?

The over 0.5 has cashed 2 of the last 5 games (40%) when Schmitt faced a former teammate. These five games span June 8-27, 2026, against Chicago (twice) and Atlanta (three times).

How does Schmitt's recent form compare to his season-long and historical trends?

Schmitt's L5 hit rate of 40% is his best recent stretch. However, his L10 rate drops to 20% (2 of 10), his 2026 season rate is 17% (3 of 18), and critically, he posted 0% (0 of 34) in 2025 when facing a former teammate. The longer the sample, the lower the success rate.

What is the American odds value for Casey Schmitt Over 0.5 Stolen Bases?

The line is offered at +850 American odds, with an implied probability of 10.5% and a payout multiplier of 8.5.

Who is the former teammate Schmitt faces on June 28?

Dominic Smith, now with the Atlanta Braves, was Schmitt's former teammate on the San Francisco Giants. Schmitt is playing in his home city (San Francisco, where he was born) but against a team from the same birthplace region.

What are the Giants' and Braves' recent records entering this matchup?

The Giants are 33-47 with a 2-3 record in their last 5 and a 1-game losing streak. The Braves are 48-31 with a 1-4 record in their last 5 and a 4-game losing streak.