Marina Mabrey takes on former teammate Kahleah Copper and the Phoenix Mercury W on June 27 at Scotiabank Arena. The Toronto Tempo W guard has cleared 30.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists in 9 of 18 games this season (50% hit rate), and cashed the over in 3 of her last 5 outings (60%). However, her head-to-head record against Phoenix tells a different story: only 4 of her last 16 matchups versus the Mercury have exceeded the line (25%).
Quick Stats
- Mabrey over 30.5 PRA hit 50% of the time in 18 games this season
- Over cashed 60% of the time in her last 5 games (3 of 5)
- Only 25% hit rate in last 16 games vs Phoenix Mercury W (4 of 16)
- Toronto Tempo W in 1-game losing streak; Phoenix in 1-game winning streak
- Mabrey plays against former teammate Kahleah Copper
Season Form: 50% Accuracy Over Last 5 Games
Mabrey has exceeded 30.5 PRA in exactly half her games this season. Across 18 contests, the over has cashed 9 times, giving bettors a clean 50% win rate. More encouragingly, her recent trajectory shows momentum: in her last 5 games, Mabrey has cleared the line in 3 outings, posting values of 45, 31, and 61 PRA against Connecticut, Atlanta, and Las Vegas.
- 50% hit rate this season (9 of 18 games)
- 60% in last 5 games (3 of 5 games)
- 40% in last 10 games (4 of 10 games)
- 45% in last 20 games (9 of 20 games)
Head-to-Head Disadvantage: 25% vs Phoenix
The matchup history against Phoenix Mercury W presents a significant headwind. In 16 games against the Mercury, Mabrey has exceeded 30.5 PRA only 4 times. Her most recent two outings against Phoenix (May 20 and June 25 of this season) both cleared the line with 38 and 32 PRA, but overall the trend favors the under at 25%.
- 25% over hit rate in last 16 games vs Phoenix (4 of 16)
- Recent wins: 38 PRA (May 20) and 32 PRA (June 25)
- 16-game sample spans 2020-present
Team Context: Toronto Struggles, Phoenix Surging
Toronto Tempo W enters with an 8-9 season record and a 1-game losing streak, while sitting 1-4 in their last 5 games. Phoenix Mercury W brings momentum at 6-13 overall but 2-3 in their last 5 and riding a 1-game winning streak. Toronto's recent slide may limit Mabrey's efficiency, though her 1 day of rest since last action could support output.
- Toronto Tempo W: 8-9 season record, 1-4 in last 5 games
- Phoenix Mercury W: 6-13 season record, 2-3 in last 5 games
- Mabrey has 1 day of rest since last game
Prop Outlook
Marina Mabrey carries 10 qualifying prop angles in our data. The top trend hits 100% historically; we weigh recent form against the line.
- M. Mabrey Over 4.5 - Rebounds (100% in the last 2 afternoon home games against PHO) at +214 - TOR vs. PHO
- M. Mabrey Under 3.5 - 3 Pointers Made (85% in the last 20 afternoon games) at -175 - TOR vs. PHO
- M. Mabrey Over 25.5 - Points + Rebounds (80% in the last 5 games vs a former teammate) at -150 - TOR vs. PHO
- M. Mabrey Under 4.5 - Assists (80% in the last 20 afternoon home games) at -150 - TOR vs. PHO
- M. Mabrey Under 22.5 - Points Scored (80% in the last 20 home games vs a former teammate) at -120 - TOR vs. PHO
Situational Angles to Know
Storylines our projection data flags for this player:
- Marina Mabrey lines up against former teammate Kahleah Copper.
Best Prop Picks
Top Marina Mabrey prop recommendations with the numbers behind them:
- M. Mabrey Over 4.5 - Rebounds (100% in the last 2 afternoon home games against PHO, +214)
- M. Mabrey Under 3.5 - 3 Pointers Made (85% in the last 20 afternoon games, -175)
- M. Mabrey Over 25.5 - Points + Rebounds (80% in the last 5 games vs a former teammate, -150)
- M. Mabrey Under 4.5 - Assists (80% in the last 20 afternoon home games, -150)
The Trends Behind the Props
How Marina Mabrey's prop results break down across recent form, the full season, home/away, and head-to-head splits:
- M. Mabrey Under 3.5 - 3 Pointers Made, 85% in the last 20 afternoon games (17/20)
- M. Mabrey Under 3.5 - 3 Pointers Made, 85% in the last 20 home games (17/20)
- M. Mabrey Under 3.5 - 3 Pointers Made, 85% in the last 20 home games vs a former teammate (17/20)
- M. Mabrey Under 3.5 - 3 Pointers Made, 80% in the last 20 afternoon home games (16/20)
- M. Mabrey Under 3.5 - 3 Pointers Made, 81% in the last 16 games against PHO (13/16)
- M. Mabrey Over 4.5 - Rebounds, 55% in the last 11 games against PHO and a former teammate (6/11)
- M. Mabrey Over 4.5 - Rebounds, 57% in the last 7 home games against PHO (4/7)
- M. Mabrey Over 4.5 - Rebounds, 60% in the last 5 home games against PHO and a former teammate (3/5)
- M. Mabrey Over 4.5 - Rebounds, 67% in the last 3 afternoon games against PHO (2/3)
- M. Mabrey Under 3.5 - 3 Pointers Made, 75% in the last 20 games vs a former teammate (15/20)
Things to Watch Out For
Risk flags before betting these props:
- Marina Mabrey is on short rest (1 day), a fatigue risk for volume props.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Marina Mabrey's PRA line for this game?
The line is set at 30.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists. Mabrey is playing in Toronto Tempo W's home game against Phoenix Mercury W on June 27.
How often has the over cashed on Mabrey's 30.5 PRA prop this season?
The over has hit 9 times in 18 games this season, a 50% success rate. In her last 5 games specifically, the over cashed 3 times (60% hit rate).
Does Mabrey struggle against Phoenix specifically?
Yes. In her last 16 games against Phoenix Mercury W, Mabrey exceeded 30.5 PRA only 4 times, marking just a 25% hit rate. This is notably lower than her season average of 50%.
Is there a former teammate angle in this matchup?
Yes. Kahleah Copper, now with Phoenix Mercury W, was Mabrey's former teammate on the Chicago Sky W.
What are the odds and what do they imply?
The over is set at -111 American odds (1.90 decimal, 100/111 fractional). The implied probability of the over cashing is 52.6%, with a payout multiplier of 0.901.