MLB Picks Today: Schmitt, Nimmo & Matz Props

Three elite hitter props and two Steven Matz under trends headline today's MLB slate. Casey Schmitt has cashed over 1.5 hits in 65% of his last 20 afternoon games, while Brandon Nimmo owns a perfect 100% hit rate over 1.5 hits in the last 5 cloudy away games. On the mound, Matz lands two under-hits-allowed props with 90% and 100% success rates in specific splits.

Quick Stats

25 games on the slate
26 qualifying trends tracked
B. Nimmo Over 1.5 - Hits (100% in the last 5 cloudy away games, +257) - TEX @ TOR
Z. Littell Under 3.5 - Hits Allowed (100% in the last 20 games played on 0 days of rest, +425) - WSH vs. MIL
S. Matz Under 3.5 - Hits Allowed (100% in the last 10 afternoon home games, +290) - TB vs. SF

Today's Slate

25 MLB games with odds and previews:

Best Picks Across the Slate

Our highest-confidence plays today, with the data behind each:

B. Nimmo Over 1.5 - Hits (100% in the last 5 cloudy away games, +257) - TEX @ TOR
Z. Littell Under 3.5 - Hits Allowed (100% in the last 20 games played on 0 days of rest, +425) - WSH vs. MIL
S. Matz Under 3.5 - Hits Allowed (100% in the last 10 afternoon home games, +290) - TB vs. SF
J. Wrobleski Under 3.5 - Hits Allowed (100% in the last 5 cloudy away games, +330) - LAD @ STL
Z. Littell Under 1.5 - Earned Runs Allowed (100% in the last 5 home games against MIL when the Brewers entered the game on 0 days of rest, +225) - WSH vs. MIL

Things to Watch Out For

Slate-wide risk flags:

Washington Over 0.5 - 1st Inning Team Runs Scored has hit just 45% recently, closer to a coin flip than an edge.
T. Turner Over 0.5 - Doubles sits at 37% lately, too thin to back with confidence.

How We Read the Slate

Across 25 games we surface 26 qualifying trends, but volume alone is not edge, so we weight recent hit rate and matchup context before recommending a side.

Casey Schmitt Over 1.5 Hits (SF vs LV)

Schmitt has cashed the over on 1.5 hits in 65% of his last 20 afternoon games. The SF vs LV matchup at Oracle Park provides another day-game opportunity for the Giants' infielder to extend a trend built on consistent contact in afternoon environments.

Odds: +210
Hit rate: 65% (last 20 afternoon games)
Market: Hits

Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 Hits (TEX @ TOR)

Nimmo owns a flawless 100% hit rate on over 1.5 hits in his last 5 cloudy away games. The Blue Jays matchup in Toronto provides the type of atmospheric conditions that have fueled this elite trend.

Odds: +257
Hit rate: 100% (last 5 cloudy away games)
Market: Hits

Steven Matz Under Hits Allowed (TB vs SF)

Matz lands two under-hits-allowed props with standout splits. Against former teammate context and afternoon home-game specifics, the Rays pitcher has posted 90% and 100% cashes on his two under props listed for this matchup.

Under 2.5 hits allowed: +650, 90% hit rate (last 20 home games vs former teammate)
Under 3.5 hits allowed: +290, 100% hit rate (last 10 afternoon home games)
Market: Hits Allowed

Additional Strong Plays Across the Slate

Washington Nationals scored in the 1st inning at 45% in 42 night games this season (WSH vs PHI). Trea Turner over 0.5 doubles cashed in 37% of his last 41 games against the Nationals as a former teammate (PHI @ WSH). Both total and individual props offer multi-game diversification.

Washington over 0.5 runs (1st inning): +320, 45% in 42 night games - WSH vs PHI
Trea Turner over 0.5 doubles: +340, 37% in last 41 games vs WSH - PHI @ WSH
Chicago Cubs under 6.5 runs (first 7 innings): +230, 68% in last 28 games vs ARI on 0 days rest - CHC vs ARI

Frequently Asked Questions

How many MLB games are on today?

25 games are on the current MLB slate.

What is the best MLB pick today?

Our top play: B. Nimmo Over 1.5 - Hits (100% in the last 5 cloudy away games, +257) - TEX @ TOR.

Where can I see MLB odds?

Live odds and trends for every game appear in the widget feed on this page.