Wellington Saints host Nelson Giants on June 27, 2026 at TSB Bank Arena. The Under 182.5 total points has cashed in 12 of Wellington's last 20 home games, a 60% hit rate. Head-to-head, the Under has connected in 3 of the last 5 Wellington home contests against Nelson, a 60% success rate. With Wellington riding a 4-1 home record in their last five games and Nelson at 2-3 in that span, low-scoring patterns dominate this matchup's recent history.
Quick Stats
- Under 182.5 has hit in 60% of Wellington's last 20 home games (12 of 20)
- Under 182.5 cashed in 60% of last 5 Wellington home games vs Nelson (3 of 5)
- Wellington is 4-1 in their last 5 home games; Nelson is 2-3 in last 5
- Only 1 of 6 Wellington home games this season stayed under 182.5 (17% hit rate)
Wellington Home Under Trends: 20-Game Sample Shows 60% Success
The Under 182.5 total points has cashed in 12 of Wellington Saints' last 20 home games. This 60% hit rate spans back to July 2024 and provides substantial recent context for the matchup at TSB Bank Arena. Wellington's home environment has consistently produced lower-scoring contests, with totals ranging from 150 to 225 points across that period.
- Under 182.5: 60% in last 20 Wellington home games (12 of 20 wins)
- Under 182.5: 50% in last 10 Wellington home games (5 of 10 wins)
- Under 182.5: 20% in last 5 Wellington home games (1 of 5 wins)
Wellington vs Nelson Head-to-Head: 60% Under Success at Home
In the last 5 Wellington home games against Nelson Giants, the Under 182.5 total has cashed in 3 contests. That 60% hit rate aligns with Wellington's broader home under trend and suggests the matchup carries a natural tendency toward lower-scoring affairs. Total points in those five games ranged from 164 to 203.
- Under 182.5: 60% in last 5 Wellington home games vs Nelson (3 of 5 wins)
- Recent scores vs Nelson at home: 164, 168, 203, 201, 170 points
2026 Season Home Splits: Wellington Under Under Pressure This Year
Wellington's 2026 home season tells a different story. The Under 182.5 has cashed in only 1 of 6 home games this season, a 17% hit rate. This season-to-date sample shows Wellington home games breaking significantly higher, with five of six contests exceeding 182.5 total points. Despite the strong longer-term home under trend, this year's home contests have skewed over.
- Under 182.5: 17% in 6 Wellington home games this season (1 of 6 wins)
- 2026 home totals: 198, 172, 200, 214, 186, 186 points
Team Form & Season Records
Wellington enters this matchup at 9-4 on the season (69.2% win rate) with a 4-1 record in their last 5 home games. Nelson Giants stand 4-9 overall (30.8% win rate) and are 2-3 in their last 5 games, though they have won their last matchup. Wellington's winning streak sits at 1 game, as does Nelson's.
- Wellington: 9-4 season record, 4-1 in last 5 home games
- Nelson: 4-9 season record, 2-3 in last 5 games
- Both teams on 1-game winning streaks
Upcoming Schedule
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Under 182.5 hit rate for Wellington Saints at home over 20 games?
The Under 182.5 total points has cashed in 12 of Wellington's last 20 home games, a 60% hit rate. This includes contests dating back to July 2024.
How does Wellington vs Nelson head-to-head compare on the Under 182.5?
In the last 5 Wellington home games against Nelson Giants, the Under 182.5 has cashed in 3 contests, a 60% success rate. Totals in those games ranged from 164 to 203 points.
Has the Under trend held up in Wellington's 2026 home games?
No. The Under 182.5 has cashed in only 1 of 6 Wellington home games this season, a 17% hit rate. Five of six 2026 home contests have exceeded 182.5 total points, breaking from the longer-term home under pattern.
What are Wellington's and Nelson's current records?
Wellington is 9-4 on the season (69.2% win rate) with a 4-1 record in their last 5 home games. Nelson is 4-9 on the season (30.8% win rate) and 2-3 in their last 5 games.