Henry Davis faces the Seattle Mariners on Thursday, June 25 at PNC Park in an afternoon matchup. The Over on Davis walks has cashed in 3 of his last 10 home games, a 30% hit rate this season. Over his last five home contests, the over has connected 2 times (40%). Davis was walked in 7 of 23 home games this season overall, continuing a trend of limited free passes at home.

Quick Stats

• Over 0.5 walks has cashed 30% in Davis's last 10 home games (3 of 10)
• Over the last 5 home games, the over has hit 40% (2 of 5)
• Davis has been walked more than 0.5 times in 7 of 23 home games this season
• Last season at home, the over cashed just 21% of the time (9 of 42 games)
• Pirates are 40-40 on the season; Mariners are 41-40 and have lost their last game

Recent Home Splits for Henry Davis

Davis's walk rate at PNC Park has been inconsistent in 2026. The Over 0.5 walks prop has cashed 40% over his last 5 home games, but that rate drops to 30% when expanding to his last 10 home contests. Across 23 home games this season, Davis has drawn a walk in 7 games, maintaining a 30% season-long hit rate at home. This marks an improvement from last season, when the over cashed in just 21% of his 42 home games.

• Last 5 home games: 40% (2 of 5)
• Last 10 home games: 30% (3 of 10)
• 2026 season (23 home games): 30% (7 of 23)
• 2025 season (42 home games): 21% (9 of 42)

Game Context: Pirates vs Mariners, June 25

The Pittsburgh Pirates host Seattle at PNC Park on Thursday afternoon with first pitch at 12:35 p.m. ET. Pittsburgh sits at 40-40 on the season with a 1-game winning streak and 0 games of rest heading in. The Mariners are 41-40 overall, currently on a 1-game losing streak, and also have had 0 days of rest. Both teams enter with identical last-5 records of 2-3. The stadium capacity is 38,747 with projected cloudy conditions and a max temperature of 27.6°C.

• Pittsburgh record: 40-40, winning streak of 1
• Seattle record: 41-40, on a 1-game losing streak
• Both teams have 0 days of rest since last game
• Afternoon game at PNC Park; projected cloudy conditions

Seasonal Walk Trend Analysis

Davis's walk prop has delivered a 30% hit rate across his 23 home games in 2026, a meaningful uptick from last season's 21% mark over 42 home games at Pittsburgh. The prop has connected in matchups against Chicago, Colorado, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Los Angeles (Dodgers), and Miami. The consistency of the 30% rate across the last 10 games and the full season suggests limited walk volume is the baseline for Davis at home, though recent five-game performance (40%) hints at slight variance.

• Over cashed 30% of the season (7 walks in 23 home games)
• Represents a 9-percentage-point increase from 2025 home rate (21%)
• Hit rate stable at 30% when measured over last 10 games
• Recent 5-game span shows elevated 40% rate

Top Team & Game Trends

The strongest team and game angles for this matchup:

• No - No Runs First Inning (72% in 32 cloudy games this season) at -105
• Pittsburgh Over 7.5 - Team Hits (66% in 41 home games this season) at -135
• Under 5.5 - Total Runs Scored (50% in the last 4 cloudy games against SEA) at +265
• Over 6.5 - First 5 Innings Total Runs Scored (100% in the last 1 cloudy away games against PIT) at +240
• Over 7.5 - First 5 Innings Total Runs Scored (100% in the last 1 cloudy away games against PIT) at +370

Matchup Angles & Storylines

Situational storylines our data flags for this game:

• Pittsburgh Pirates draw a winning opponent (above.500).
• Seattle Mariners get a softer spot against a sub.500 opponent.

Best Game Picks

Our top data-backed game/team recommendations, with the numbers:

• Over 6.5 - First 5 Innings Total Runs Scored (100% in the last 1 cloudy away games against PIT, +240)
• Over 7.5 - Total Runs Scored (90% in the last 10 away games, -145)
• No - No Runs First Inning (72% in 32 cloudy games this season, -105)
• Pittsburgh Over 7.5 - Team Hits (66% in 41 home games this season, -135)

Player Props to Watch

Player props for this game, each tied to the player:

• B. Chandler Under 3.5 - Hits Allowed (100% in 2 afternoon home games this season, +211)
• B. Lowe Over 2.5 - Hits + Runs + RBIs (80% in the last 5 cloudy home games, +180)
• L. Raley Under 0.5 - Hits (70% in the last 20 afternoon away games, +112)
• C. Emerson Over 2.5 - Hits + Runs + RBIs (67% in the last 3 away games vs players chosen earlier in the draft, +275)
• B. Reynolds Over 0.5 - Walks (56% in 41 home games this season, +169)
• C. Young Over 0.5 - RBIs (54% in 13 cloudy away games this season, +217)

Parlays for This Game

Correlated multi-leg parlays from this matchup, with the combined price and every leg:

• 2-leg parlay at +395 (20% implied): B. Lowe Over 0.5 - RBIs + B. Miller Over 5.5 - Strikeouts Recorded
• 3-leg parlay at +404 (20% implied): J. Naylor Over 1.5 - Hits + J. Naylor Over 0.5 - Runs Scored + J. Naylor Over 0.5 - RBIs
• 2-leg parlay at +462 (18% implied): R. O'Hearn Over 0.5 - RBIs + B. Miller Over 5.5 - Strikeouts Recorded

Things to Watch Out For

Risk flags before you bet this game:

• Pittsburgh Pirates face a winning opponent (above.500), a tougher spot than the record implies.
• B. Lowe Over 0.5 - Walks has hit just 53% recently, closer to a coin flip than an edge.
• C. Young Over 0.5 - RBIs sits at 54% lately, too thin to back with confidence.
• B. Reynolds Over 1.5 - Hits has cashed only 45% of late, below the bar for a real edge.
• B. Reynolds Over 0.5 - RBIs is barely a coin flip at 50%, so tread carefully.

How to Bet This Market

Compare prices across books, confirm the line hasn't moved, and place the bet via the widget.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Henry Davis's walk rate at home this season?

Henry Davis has been walked more than 0.5 times in 7 of his 23 home games in 2026, a 30% hit rate for the Over 0.5 walks prop. This is up from 21% (9 of 42) in 2025 at PNC Park.

How has the Over performed in Davis's last 5 home games?

The Over 0.5 walks has cashed in 2 of Davis's last 5 home games, a 40% hit rate. Those games came against Chicago, Minnesota, Los Angeles, and Miami from May 26 through June 14.

What are the current records and momentum for Pirates vs Mariners?

Pittsburgh is 40-40 with a 1-game winning streak and 2-3 record in their last 5 games. Seattle is 41-40, on a 1-game losing streak, and also 2-3 in their last 5 games. Both teams enter with zero days of rest.

What does Over 0.5 walks mean in this prop?

This prop asks whether Henry Davis will walk (be thrown four inaccurate pitches resulting in a base on balls) one or more times in the game. A walk counts as a hit; no walk or zero walks means the Under wins.

How Walks Works

Walks settles based on the outcome of the specific stat or result it tracks. A negative number (e.g. -110) is the favorite price; a positive number is the underdog.

Reading the Odds

American odds show how much you win on a 100 stake (or must risk to win 100).

Frequently Asked Questions

How does Walks pay out?

Payout follows the posted American odds at the time you place the bet.